October 2026 Energy Market Report for Businesses

Power and natural gas prices both fell in October. This energy market report covers where 12-month power and gas prices stand, what moved them and the risks energy buyers should plan around. Prices are as of Oct 30, 2026. Strips cover December 2026 through November 2027.

The 12-month strip is the wholesale price of a one-year fixed contract bought today. When the strip falls, fixed price offers from suppliers tend to fall with it.

What moved energy prices in October?

Most of the main price drivers pushed prices down this month.

• Natural gas (bearish): The Henry Hub 12-month strip closed at $2.83 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), its lowest level since at least March. It fell 10.0% on the month and 3.2% in the final week.

• Power (bearish): All 12 tracked utility markets fell on the month. The average 12-month power strip dropped 5.7%. Con Edison in New York was essentially flat.

• Crude oil (bullish): WTI was at $103.37 and Brent at $123.10 on Oct 27, per EIA spot price data. 

• Weather (bearish): NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecast above-normal temperatures in the East, Midwest and Texas through Nov 9. Gas storage (neutral): Storage reached 3,724 Bcf (billion cubic feet), 1.0% above the five-year average and 3.8% below last year.

• Economy (neutral): CPI inflation reached 3.7% in September. The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28, with two members voting for a hike.

Where did power prices fall the most?

Power prices fell in every region we track, from flat in New York to 10.8% in North Texas. Most U.S. power plants burn natural gas, so cheaper gas usually means cheaper power.

• Texas, down 10.2%. Oncor fell 10.8% to 3.76¢ per kWh and CenterPoint fell 9.6%. Texas paused data center permits until a December audit by ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas), which slows how fast power demand grows.

• Mid-Atlantic, down 7.8% on average. PECO in Pennsylvania fell 8.8% to 4.40¢ per kWh. PSEG in New Jersey fell 8.9%. BGE in Maryland fell 5.7%.

• West, down 7.7%. PG&E in California fell 7.7% to 4.06¢ per kWh. The West is the one region not forecast to run warmer than normal.

• Great Lakes, down 3.9%. ComEd, Ameren, AEP Ohio and DTE all fell between 3.0% and 5.2%.

• Northeast, down 0.7%. National Grid in Massachusetts fell 1.2% and Con Edison in New York was flat. Massachusetts also cut the cost of a state clean-energy requirement by 50%, which should reduce one charge built into fixed offers.

Why are natural gas prices at their lowest since spring?

Mild weather and strong supply are keeping gas prices down. Production hit a record 113.4 Bcf per day in October, according to preliminary LSEG data. Storage added 80 Bcf in the week to Oct 23, which keeps inventories above the five-year average.

The average price hides a seasonal shape. January gas costs $3.37, 19% above the $2.83 average. April costs $2.36, 17% below it. Winter months cost more.

Which policy changes affect energy costs this month?

Two actions lowered costs and two added risk, both in PJM (the grid operator for Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and 10 other states).

• Massachusetts lowered costs. An Oct 5 executive order and Oct 7 emergency rules from the Department of Energy Resources cut the state's APS (Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard) costs by 50% this winter, about $20 million in relief. A hearing follows on Nov 13.

• Texas eased prices. The governor directed state regulators to stop issuing data center permits until ERCOT's December audit.

• PJM added cost risk. The Department of Energy ran a four-day emergency order for PJM from Oct 13 to 16, after heat hit during maintenance season.

• FERC added cost risk. On Oct 9 the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected most of PJM's plan for large new loads, after the 2028/29 capacity auction cleared at its $325/MW-day cap.

What could move prices sharply from here?

Big forces are pulling prices in both directions.

Forces that could push prices up:

• Global LNG (liquefied natural gas): Asian LNG costs about $34 per MMBtu, against $2.83 for U.S. gas.

• The EIA forecast: The EIA's 2027 Henry Hub forecast of $3.16 sits about 12% above the current strip.

• Data centers: Virginia's winter peak demand is now higher than its summer peak.

• PJM capacity: The 2028/29 auction came up 6,831 MW (megawatts) short of PJM's reliability target. PJM refiled a backstop plan on Oct 29 to buy that capacity starting Mar 1, 2027.

Forces that could push prices down:

• El Niño: A strong-to-very strong El Niño is expected through early 2027, which favors a milder northern winter.

• Permian pipelines: New pipelines should lift U.S. gas output to 116.1 Bcf per day in 2027. 

• Texas batteries: Battery storage in Texas reached 18.7 GW (gigawatts) at the end of September.

• Data center outlook: PJM forecasts energy demand growing 5.3% per year over the next decade.

Key Takeaway

Power and natural gas prices fell in October. Average 12-month power strips dropped 5.7%, and the Henry Hub strip fell to $2.83, its lowest since at least March. Prices are lower, but LNG demand, data centers and PJM capacity still carry upside risk, so buying in stages is safer than trying to time a single bottom.

Prices: Energy CX market data. 12-month wholesale futures strips (Dec '26 to Nov '27) as of Oct 30, 2026; 1-month change vs Sep 30, 1-week change vs Oct 23. Retail offers add capacity, transmission and margin. Information only; not an offer or trading advice.