Will the Midterm Elections Change Energy Prices?

Although politics can affect energy prices, the 2026 midterm elections are unlikely to impact your business’s 2027 and 2028 energy bills. Weather, natural gas supply and grid costs will have a more significant influence on your energy bill than the results of the election on November 3rd.

Have Past Elections Moved Energy Prices?

The short answer is: not significantly. Energy CX examined Henry Hub natural gas prices and PJM power prices in Northern Illinois for the two weeks before and after each federal election from 2016 to 2024, and found they show no trend of notable market volatility post election.  Although prices rose and fell after the elections, every variance landed inside the normal range for any two-week snapshot of the energy market. 

Why Won’t the Midterm Elections Move Energy Prices This Time?

The likely outcome is already priced in. 

• Energy prices reflect what traders expect. As of October 2026, forecasters put the odds of a change in House control between 79% and 90%. When an outcome is that widely expected, the market has already absorbed it.

Congress doesn’t control the factors that set your rate. 

• Your power price is shaped by grid operators like PJM, by your utility and state regulators, and by the President, who sets policy on LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports and tariffs. None of them are on the ballot this November.

Policy moves too slowly to reach 2027 and 2028 prices. 

• New energy legislation takes months to put into effect. A new power plant takes years to build. The electricity you buy for 2027 and 2028 will come from plants that already exist today and will be impacted by legislation that’s already been signed into law.

What Will Impact Your 2027 and 2028 Energy Prices?

Winter weather

• Winter is the biggest swing factor, and it can push prices either way. A strong El Niño, which NOAA forecasters are tracking, tends to bring a milder winter to the northern U.S. and ease prices. A cold snap does the opposite. 

Natural gas storage

• Gas-fired plants often set the price of electricity, so cheaper gas tends to mean cheaper power. Every Thursday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports how much natural gas is in storage. As of mid-October, U.S. storage held 3,644 billion cubic feet (Bcf), slightly above the five-year average of 3,609 Bcf, according to the EIA’s weekly storage report. 

LNG exports and the Middle East

• Rising U.S. LNG exports add demand for domestic gas and push prices up. The EIA expects exports to grow from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 18.6 in 2027, an increase of about 23%. A deal that eases Middle East shipping disruptions would cut the other way, lowering global gas prices and easing pressure on U.S. prices.

Grid capacity costs

• In PJM, capacity costs are climbing. Capacity is the charge for the right to draw power from the grid when demand peaks. Energy CX estimates capacity will make up about 26% of the supply price in Northern Illinois in 2027, up from 10% in 2024 to 2025. For a business using 1 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) a year, that adds roughly $12,000. Those costs were set by PJM auctions that have already happened, so they won’t be impacted by anything on the ballot.

Key Takeaway

The 2026 midterm elections are unlikely to change business energy prices for 2027 and 2028. The expected result is already priced in, and the people who set energy rates aren’t on the ballot. Winter weather, gas storage, LNG exports and grid capacity costs will matter far more.